This Is Your Food Supply On Climate Change

(this post was first published on Sustainablog on 8/11/12)

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I think that this year's climate extremes are linked to human-caused climate change.  We might not really have the definitive answer on whether that is true for 20 years, but I would like nothing better than to be proven wrong about the linkage I'm making today.  From a global food supply perspective, the effects of weather on 2012 food production is problematic no matter what its cause.  As bad as it seems, it might just be a "shot over the bow" relative to what me might expect in the future. The unfilled corn cob pictured above is a relatively decent example of what the US corn crop is yielding this year.

How Hot Is It?

This isn't just about low rainfall.  There is a recent graph about temperature extremes on the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency) site that is striking. The 2012 difference from average is off the chart!

When it is both hot and dry, our dominant, rain-fed crops suffer the most.

It Isn't Just A US Drought

Yes, we have a massive drought in the US unlike anything we have seen for decades.  But there are also drought issues with wheat in Russia and excessive rain issues with crops in Western Europe that could ruin some of their harvest with mycotoxin contamination.  Ironically, the last season in Australia was better than many for their wheat crop which means that there is less low quality wheat going into the feed market that has been important for Chinese and other Asian meat production in recent years.

What ever this year's weather represents in a climate change context, it has been problematic for the global food supply.  The FAO (UN Food and Agricultural Organization) tracks the prices for various foods in international trade and generates a "Food Price Index" each month.  I've been blogging about this for a couple of years, but the new data released on August 9th is disturbing - particularly the data for cereals (wheat, rice, corn, soybeans,etc).  See the graph below

The red line is for the period 2010-12 and in the 30th month of that cycle we are seeing a 17% increase in one month - a steeper climb that was even seen in the 2007-9 price spike (green line).  This rise was seen even before the full magnitude of the US drought was known.  I shudder to think what the index will show next month.  The 2007/8 spike has been linked to a great deal of political insecurity and even credited as a driver of the "Arab Spring."  Hold on to your hats to see what this new price spike will mean.

Of course the impact of these high food trading prices depends on how dependent a country is on imports and how much of family income is spent on food.  There is an excellent new site from the Economist which compares countries around the world in terms of their food security and food spend.

I'll say it again.  This certainly looks like the sort of climate extreme and related food supply impacts that we would expect from climate change.  I both hope to be around in 20 years and to be proven wrong about my belief that "this is our global food supply on climate change."

You are welcome to comment here and/or to email me a sdsavage@sprynet.com

Drought damaged corn image from grifray

A Note To Rachel Carson On The 50th Anniversary Of “Silent Spring”

What looks like it might be an original copy from 1962

Dear Ms. Carson,

On this, the 50^th anniversary of the publication of your book, “Silent Spring” I’d like to tell you about the remarkable legacy of your book.  Many things have transpired over the last five decades that would give you considerable satisfaction. Unfortunately, I must also explain to you why many people today don’t understand how profound those changes have been.

Your Positive Legacy

The biggest change since 1962 has been in our societal appreciation of the need to carefully evaluate the environmental and health attributes of chemicals that we use for the control of agricultural pests or the vectors of human disease.  Whole new fields of science have developed to understand such risks (environmental toxicology, environmental science to name two).  Whole new regulatory bodies (Environmental Protection Agency, EPA) and processes (chemical registration) have been instituted to translate those risk assessments into sound policy.  DDT, which was central to your 1962 warning, is long-gone, as are scores of other, old pesticides that cannot meet high, modern, safety standards.  Billions of dollars have been invested in the discovery, testing, and introduction of new, low-risk pest control methods and practices. The net effect of all of this is that not only are our springs well-accompanied with bird songs, we also enjoy a safe, affordable and diverse food supply beyond anything one could have imagined in 1962.  I’m sure that when you took the risk of publishing your book, you hoped that it would initiate this sort of positive change, and that is certainly what has happened.

Your Legacy Obscured

Unfortunately, there are some today who seem to have a vested interest in convincing us that your legacy has not been this positive. Whether it is to sell certain products or to garner attention or contributions, these voices continue to promote a “sky is falling” narrative. When you wrote 'Silent Spring,' you employed highly emotive language, vivid mental images, and a good degree of hyperbole.  Such over-the-top prose was justifiable because you had to overcome the deep-seated complacency of your age. Today, many groups continue to employ that same literary style when talking about food and agriculture issues.  By doing so, and by engendering unnecessary fear among consumers, they effectively deny people the confident enjoyment of life and food that would otherwise have been another part of your legacy. I am confident that you hoped to initiate change, not to inaugurate a perennial state of alarm.

A Prime Example of Your Positive Legacy

Each year the USDA conducts an extensive sampling and testing program for the American food supply.  It essentially serves as a “report card” for agricultural pesticide safety, both in the US and in countries from which we import foods.  What the report clearly shows is that consumers have no need to be concerned about pesticide residues on their food.  The extremely low levels detected are virtually all well below even the conservative tolerances set by the EPA and mostly millions of times below toxic doses.  These results speak volumes about the positive impact of your book. 

A Prime Example of Your Positive Legacy Denied

There is an organization called the Environmental Working Group (EWG), which takes that same set of data and quite effectively uses it to frighten consumers.  They do so by ignoring almost all the actual information in the USDA report.  They ignore that differences between chemicals as if we had learned nothing about what to look for in 50 years.  They ignore the actual levels detected as if we have forgotten the ancient Greek understanding that "the dose makes the poison."  Finally, they ignore the carefully set EPA tolerances as if over all these years, we have learned nothing about how to evaluate risk.  Unfortunately, their message is widely disseminated by a credulous press and believed by a great many consumers.

Real Environmentalism

Your book is widely credited as a major contribution to the development of the modern Environmental Movement.  That is, indeed, a very positive result of your influence. A strong segment of that environmental movement continues to make significant contributions to society.  That part of the movement acknowledges that there has been positive change that you helped to initiate and to which many entities have contributed over the years.  The segment of the Environmental Movement that effectively denies positive change does no service to your legacy.

You are welcome to comment here and/or to email me at savage.sd@gmail.com

'Silent Spring' book image from Sterling College